Monday, 21 November 2016

IS RUSSIA GOING TO ACQUIESCE TO A uSA WAR AGAINST IRAN?


Is Russia going to allow Trump fascist imperialism to destroy Iran?

Sukant Chandan
Sons of Malcolm
Mon 21 Nov 2016

This is a post that pains me greatly to write, never written a post with such anxiety . But the danger signs are too big for me not to say something with the intense hope and prayers that I have got this very wrong. As many of us know, the Russian leadership have been supporting the global south in many important historical ways, but also there has been a worrying escalation of them doing as much as they can in soft-power to bring to power fascists in the 'west' with the terribly and frankly criminally wrong-headed delusion that western fascists will be 'nicer' to Russia. The RT (Russia Today) channel has been the most important and leading platform for global fascism, especially in the last year or two. But there are many other neo-fascist platforms run from Moscow that surround us.

Russia has been putting out the notion that Trump as well as Farage, Le Pen and other fascist leaders will be 'nice' to Russia, than hitherto have imperialists been with Russia. Putin has tied himself into knots from his Bonapartist (limiting class conflicts in favour of a elite leadership of the country) politics that plays to the Soviet socialist anti-imperialist masses, but draws them towards and is loyal to the Russian nationalist oligarchs who are firmly in control. Putin has lost his mind, desperately trying to get imperialism to treat Russia as equals, and now he has convinced himself and many others that western fascist victories will be of benefit to Russia. What an insult and humiliation to the 40 million Soviet martyrs against fascism in the 1940s, which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that european/western fascism will, despite the apparent colonial tricks, will seek to prepare the ground to destroy Russian independence. While playing to our socialist martyrs, Putin is dragging that legacy in dog shit, and using the anti-imperialist socialist sentiments of the former Soviet peoples to help develop a fascism that they sacrificed so greatly to defeat.

We have had so many people paid by Russian and their leading fascist (Aleksander Dugin AKA Dugin the Dog (apologies to dogs)) to promote Trump, they have been doing it for many many months, and now they have the victory their were being paid to achieve. These political sociopaths really think that Trump is going to befriend Russia? THIS is the point we have to dig right into:

It seems to me that Trump will pull what the usa and western imperialist states did with Obama and Libya. Use Trump like they did Obama to lull sections of the global south to sleep, and then when guards are slightly down go for the kill and knock out Libya, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia and nearly Egypt and aiming for Algeria, Hizbullah. The Palestinian struggle has been already been neutralised and is currently just not a strategic struggle, although we must of course support it loyally. I think what is taking place is that the leading factions of the usa ruling classes have brought Trump to power to trick the Russians into thinking that the yanks are going to 'normalise' relations towards Russia.

Why on earth would an imperialist system in freefall crises into fascism befriend Russia? It would not of course, as it is seeking even more vicious domination. So what's going on? What's going on is I think, a la Obama, Trump will lull the Russians, cut a deal with them and say: listen, we will go soft on you, ease the sanctions, bring in you fro the  cold. The usa doesnt even NEED to be too nice to the Russians for too long, they just have to give them the impression that they will be nice to them *just* long enough to prepare the media war propaganda to take along the masses to acquiesce in a war of destruction against Iran like they did to Saddam's Iraq, Gaddafi's Libya etc. I been saying for more than five years: after knocking out Libya, Tunisia, Syria, downgrading Egypt, Yemen; they will go directly onto Iran.

Iran is bogged down in Iraq and Syria and to a lesser extent Yemen. Hizbullah is bogged down in Syria. The Syrian government are hanging on a string that the Russians are holding. In the event of a full war of destruction against Iran (like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya) the Iranians straits of Hormuz military strategy will not work, the usa can blast everything out of the water no problem. Iran will partner with Lebanese Hizbullah to launch rockets onto israel, south Lebanon and the border with Syria will be wasted in no time by the usa military. Anyway, if israel fries in all of this, its not the biggest deal for imperialism, israel is a junior attack dog in the region that is expendable, always has been, just used and armed as long as they are useful.

Without Russian backing and support, Iran has no real strategy other than long term peoples war to perhaps in the next generation or more to defeat this aggression.

All the imperialists need to do is to ensure the Russians dont move when they go for Iran. That's it. They don't need anything more. The usa might be saying to Russia: guys, just look the other way when we go for Iran, like you did with turned away when we went for Libya in March 2011, and then we can divvy up the region and all that oil between ourselves and remove one of the biggest obstacles in the region. Once the operation on Iran is under way, the usa and western imperialists will then turn their crosshairs to China and Russia. Russia will not escape, it will be brought under total imperialist domination or will have to fight back. The massive danger is that the Russians are fooled for a few years, Iran is destroyed, and then Russia are totally surrounded from the south.

f/when Iran is attacked and Hizbullah launch again against israel, will Russia side with Iran or israel? I hope I am totally wrong, but indicators are that it will side with israel, too much goodies out of that relationship on military, economic and political things than compared to Iran, a 'third world' state struggling, whereas israel is a outpost of modern imperialism with its up to date modern high-scientific-military-industrial complex. It takes militant anti-imperialist ideological and strategical clarity to side with Iran and not with the enemy, China has that commitment, not Russia as things stand currently. China-Iran will be talking right now about the Trump-Russian problem.

The other hard line nationalist figures in the Russian state will be having arguments right now with Putin's faction, but the problem is that those arguments might be off-set by the harder nationalist elements thinking there is some great opening with Trump that they want to go for. Trump's likely secretary of state is john bolton, that signals a clear approach to war on Iran, the sanctions will be deepened, the nuke deal will be ripped up and war will be developed against Iran. Even if bolton is not chosen, the mood music from Trump is rapprochement with Russia so as to go gung-ho to Iran and China, that's very clear.

Our role is to shout and scream that this does not happen, to demand Russia stays loyal to ALL sections of the global south including Iran and China against imperialism; that we demand GREATER military cooperation and aid to Iran and China and that they speed up their defences to the maximum asap; that we battle to defeat the infiltrating fascists who are delivering all of this. Other factors that might help in this situation is that imperialism in a fascist crisis just cannot maintain a steady deceitful approach to Moscow, they go in too hard and make mistakes and lose Russia like they did after the last 'reset'. Also, China and Iran and other allies could make moves to try and scupper this bullshit from Moscow, but that's not really China's style, and Iran don't have the capacity to dictate anything to the Russians really without China helping out big time. India under the BJP may also sit on their hands if there is a war on Iran cos despite India and Iran being very close, the current BJP sectarian for big business are natural allies of Dugin's 'eurasian'-style fascism. We have lost Brazil, and that region is being defeated and not seeing further victories. If you stand still you go backwards, existence and liberation requires constant movement forward.

We can chart so much of this back to the massive historical blunder for the global south struggle that was Libya 2011. We don't have to look back far in history to see a precedent to what I am speculatively analysing here, only five years ago our global struggle fucked up big time and defacto allowed Libya to burn to an horrific end by Nato. The global south has seen what happened, many of them know what needs to be done to ensure it doesn't happen again, but there is no will, determination and leadership to implement the lessons going forward.

We are in growing extremely precarious times. If we lose Iran, we have definitively lost the region, and China or India or Algeria will be next, and then they will finish off with Russia, and 'latin' America will be a walk over cos imperialism is in no mood for massive military occupations a la Vietnam 1954-1975, Iraq 2003 and Afghanistan 2001. and all they need to do is send missiles until nothing stands. Africa, especially SADC countries have always been up for regime change and neutralisation, and that's going on against South Africa, they are preparing the country for annihilation using the DA and the EFF as pincer movements, Zim is holding on precariously as are the other states. We are talking about a new streamlined, refined, imperialism that has as its operational models Syria and Libya, no overt military on the ground (of course there are special forces a-plenty, covertly), use sectarian supremacist death squads to do the raping, pillaging and mutilations and societal collapse, bomb from the sky, send in the specialist private company mercenaries, and extract and grab and steal wealth at much as can be possible, and if you can't extract much, well you did what your crisis necessitated you to do: destroy all obstacles and seek total domination.

God, prove me wrong, I beg you.

No comments: