Thursday, 6 March 2014

ANALYSIS ON UKRAINE; MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?


Updated analysis on Ukraine: The situation in Ukraine is very fluid and unstable. I don't see it stabilising in the short term & people in the east of the country just accepting their lot nor being abandoned by Russia. When Thatcher proposed to Chinese Pres at the time, Deng Xiaoping that China should allow Britain to go on ruling Hong Kong after 1997, he replied that any Chinese government that did that would be worse than the Qing dynasty & would have no alternative but to step down from power. Putin is in a similar position vis-a-vis Ukraine. Moreover, it is literally a case of "enemy at the gates".

On the other hand, I don't see the disparate political factions in Kiev pulling together in a cohesive and sustainable fashion. And any money actually forthcoming from the US & EU will be at the cost of really painful attacks on living standards, social provisions, etc.

And where exactly is the EU going to find 15 billion? What a joke that the US says it will put up 1bn & tells the EU to find 15! If Obama wants to hear some colourful lamguage, let's hope he's still got Merkel's mobile number. And how will "finding" 15 bn go down with the people of Greece & others being bled dry? Meanwhile, of course, no more subsidised prices from Gazprom (Russian state Gas company).

If Russia ends up with the loyal citizens of Eastern Ukraine (with its heavy industrial base) & the West has to prop up a bankrupt & enfeebled rump state in Western Ukraine, then things could be worse. But let's see.

Meanwhile, Gazprom has reduced its prices for Greece

(thanks to my friend close to BRICS leadership for much of these comments)

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